Jim C , Additional reading and stuff

http://tv.msn.com/reality-tv/lauren-alaina-rejected/story/?GT1=28103

Poor audio, but only copy unless you want the whole Leno show...



Jim Cantiello's Idol in 60

Tags: MTV Shows

Country Show down

So, we had a little bit of drama going into the show last night. It got out that Lauren was so sick that she might not be able to perform and that they were looking to Haley to step into her place. Thank goodness it didn't come to that. I don't think I could have handled another night of an over-caffeinated Prof. Lupin in heat.

Both Scotty and Lauren did well. Scotty's was pretty much the same performance we've been getting all season long. I half expect at this point that he could have phoned the bugger in and it wouldn't have made a bit of difference to his fans. Lauren was a bit of a surprise to see her do so well, considering the big deal they made about her blown vocal chord. I'm beginning to wonder if the producers see which way this season's going to head and in an effort to make it a closer race, leaked info in an effort to get some sympathy votes for her.Scotty won the toss, he deferred to her and she chose the pimp spot. So yet again, Scotty's fans are denied seeing him close out a show.

So who will win?

Well, Scotty's been solid all season with maybe 1 or 2 not so hot performances. However, it's out there that many of the country stations don't want to have to work with him. Maybe his sound is too old school for their liking? Lauren's got more of a commercial, cross-over sound to her and should do very well, if not better than Scotty. If you have an ITunes account, I highly encourage you check out the studio versions of their coronation singles. I firmly believe that hers will get much more air time than his.

As of Sunday, Scotty's odds were at a -800 on the site I go to for the figures. This means in order to come out even, you'd need to put down $800. With Lauren, on the other hand, her odds have her at 400 which means that if you were smart and put $100 on her last week AND she manages to win.... you'd get that and $400.

RAW: The chart for the RAW scores is showing 3 out of Scotty's 4 lines receiving more votes than all of Lauren's. This particular chart hasn't been totally accurate all season, but it's been closer to right than the rest of the site. The most interesting part of the screen shot below is that they're promoting Lauren's single and no matter how many times I refreshed the page, I never once saw a promo for Scotty.... hm.

Maps: With a 19 state win with 17 losses, Lauren actually bested Scotty who ended up with score of -2. In the last 4 years (DI doesn't go back any farther), only 50% of the time the Maps were correct. I would guess that Seasons 1-5 more than likely reflected what Seasons 6 & 7 did, with the runner up winning fewer states overall. However, Seasons 8 & 9 were a bit on the strange side with the runner up actually scoring higher on the winner map than the champion did.

Chart: According to the Chart, we have another landslide winner. It wasn't even close. It was Scotty right from the starting gate, and he wasn't even going full steam. VFTW is going to love this and you can damn well bet they'll declare a victory.

Wikipedia: According to the number crunchers,  more often than not, the one in the pimp spot wins. Of  9 seasons, there were only 3 instances where the person who sang first actually won this contest.

We've had a WMWG champion the last 3 years and the only was I see this changing is if the producers decide that they're simply not going to allow that to happen. Either that or Scotty decides he doesn't really want it that bad and defers the crown to Lauren.

Some extra reading

http://new.music.yahoo.com/blogs/realityrocks/422555/double-idol-prediction-scotty-will-win-but-lauren-will-outsell-him/


Thanks for passing this one along, Chicagolady!

WTF?

Ok. So. He wasn't my favorite and I had another that I wanted to win. However, it's just plain rude to treat the past year's winner like this. I certainly hope that there's no truth to the story going around.

http://www.rickey.org/lee-dewyze-not-invited-to-american-idol-10-finale/

Jim C's 60 and Additional reading

Mixed emotions about the new pick....

http://www.votefortheworst.com/story/667465/country-radio-isnt-interested-in-scotty-mccreery

http://www.votefortheworst.com/story/667466/vote-for-the-worst-endorses-scotty-mccreery-for

James Durbin news
http://www.rickey.org/james-durbin-generated-1-million-in-revenue-for-santa-cruz-beach-boardwalk/


Jim C's Idol in 60 seconds

MTV Shows

Two girls one guy

Here we are at the Top 3. Holy cow has this season just flown by. Yeah, I may have had many weeks where I simply didn't feel like writing anything, but I didn't really get to the point of wishing the season was over. I think I'm actually going to miss the show while it's on hiatus. Go figure. Oh wait, The Voice is on now and X-Factor will be coming this fall... maybe it won't be so bad. Nah. I'm gonna miss this show even with the constant SUTA-fest.

This week the contestants had 3 songs a piece. One song that they chose for themselves, one that Jimmy Iovine chose for them and then one that the judges picked. Odd. They said judges and none of them mentioned that so and so chose the song for them so I have to wonder if it was a group effort this time around because they didn't have that opinionated judge on the panel this time. Ok ok. With the constant SUTA blasts for every contestant this season, I did miss having him around.

Beyonce was our guest mentor this week for the kids' personal choice performances. We also got to see her new video which was supposed to be out weeks ago but she'd had to "perfect" it or some sort. I half expect that she'd planned on dropping it, had things all in motion to do so and then Idol asked her to make an appearance. At that point, she probably put the kibosh on the release, realizing she could get it out to many more people all at the same time. It's what I would have done, at least. I personally wasn't fond of the video. The best part, in my opinion was that Friesian stallion she arrived on in the beginning of the video.  Wasn't he just GORGEOUS??

Yet again, Scotty topped the chart with a solid 1st listing in GREEN and all saw an increase in their odds.
Haley came in solid first in the RAW this week. Even more of a solid first than the last two weeks as all three of her lines beat out the other two left in the competition.

After each round, Mr Seacrest asked the judges who won the round. Assuming that a contestant can get a possible 3 points each round, and they sweep the night, there's a possible of 9 total points for the night.

Hey wait. Scotty isn't in the pimp spot this week either??? WTF?  Not a single show this year has he closed out. This is so not fair.

Scotty (Amazed by Lonestar, Are You Gonna Kiss Me or Not by Thompson Square and She Believes in Me by Kenny Rogers): I didn't know the second song at all so I had to check out the original. I love when a contestant in Idol makes me do that. Scotty had 3 fairly solid performances this week, again. No real surprise there. Personally, the 1st and the 3rd have had me hitting the repeat link rather ummm repeatedly. Two and a half panties out of three this week. His odds have gone up yet again to a -250 (meaning you'd need to drop $250 to even place a bet and break even if he wins). The Chart places him in 1st/ GREEN but the RAW tells another story. At quick glance he looks to be tied with Lauren for second, however if you go by the phone numbers, Lauren's got him beat in 2 of the 3 lines. The Maps give him an 11 with 17 wins and 6 losses.
Judges score: 2 (both in round 2)

Lauren (Wild One by Faith Hill, If I Die Young by Perry and I Hope You Dance by Lee Ann Womack): Yet again, Mr Iovine chooses a song for the contestant that I don't know. Sometimes this ploy works out and sometimes it doesn't. As was in Scotty's case, a little known song from a little known band really worked out well. Of the 3 performances, I like the second and third as I don't quite believe that she has it in her to cover a Faith Hill tune. Overall, she had a fairly decent night, even with the wardrobe malfunction that made her ditch the hose and have to put make-up on her legs. Her odds went up last week, after a slight dip from the week before, to a +425.  Not as high as they had been, but not too bad.  The Chart has her at 2-3/2nd and the RAW places her tied, but just possibly edging out Scotty with 2 of the 3 possible lines beating him. The Maps give her a mere 3 states with 13 won and 11 lost. Poor gal is still splitting votes with Scotty thanks to the genre and if she goes home, it'll simply be because of that.
Judges score: 3 (1 in round 2 and 2 in round 3)


Howley Haley (What Is and What Should Never Be by Led Zepplin, Rhiannon by Fleetwood Mac and You Oughta Know by Alanis Morissette): Way to toss her under the bus Mr Iovine! You give the kids some little known songs by lesser known artists and saddle Haley with a song that is going to draw comparisons to Stevie Nicks. Bad enough she gets stuck with this song, which is alone enough to draw the comparison, but the wind machine too. Nice job there. All I can think is that maybe he's hearing something that we aren't and thinks that she can handle the extra scrutiny. Anyhow, I'd much rather talk about that tumble she took in that first performance. Kudos for getting right up and keeping going. It's a true sign of a professional. Me, I would have either just finished the song seated or lost it by laughing (and I tend to snort when I laugh). All we got from you is a bigger smile and a slight giggle to acknowledge that you messed up. All we lost was a few words as the wind got knocked from you and you regained your composure. Bravo. The last song, I want to know what the judges were smoking. Unless they, too, were trying to see if they could get rid of her? A better Alanis song for her would have been Ironic.. and THAT one's already appropriate for the show, no line rewrite needed to be able to air it.  Of the 3 songs, I only liked the first one. Something didn't feel right with her 2nd and we lose her a bit on the lower notes in the last one. Personally, I thought that last one was a lamentable mess.  Her odds have been going up by leaps and bounds and she's now at a +400, ahead of Lauren. The Chart places her at 2-3/3rd, yet the RAW has her firmly (all 3 lines, mind you) in first. The Maps give her a 3 with a 11 win and 8 loss in the states.
Judges score: 4 (she swept the first round and got her last vote in round 3)

So, who goes home?
Rickey.org's poll: Lauren
Maps: Lauren
Chart: Haley
RAW: either Scotty or Lauren (most likely the former)
Vegas odds on BetEd: Lauren
Judges scores: Scotty

Scotty: Although he's breezed through the competition, I do have to wonder one thing. Even though he sounds nothing like the last 3 winners (thank goodness), does Idol really want another Caucasian Male winner? I may love that deep country voice, but he's really rather limited in what he can sing. I'm more of a pop and rock girl and he's all country.

Lauren: Solid performances but she's splitting votes with more than one person still. She splits the country vote with Scotty and the ones that want a female winner for a change with Haley. If she goes home it's because she fell through the cracks.

Haley: She growls, snarls and all but drools through her performances. Working for her is that she's memorable and, when she's not going all Jacob Black or Henry Foss on us, she actually has a decent voice and fabulous stage presence. She gets up there and owns the stage, even if she trips and falls midway through her number. Also working for her is the fact that she's an alternative contestant for those that don't like country. Top things all off, I suspect she's alot more flexible in the type of songs she can do which means, in the long run, that she'll appeal to a larger audience than Scotty (who will be pure country, for sure) or Lauren (who will be more of a pop country like Shania). What's this mean in simpler terms? She's more marketable. If she's sent packing, it'll simply be because the public really wants a guy in the finale OR that country's the hot thing this year.

As much as I would like to call it as a female definitely leaving (especially where the Chart and Maps are concerned), I cannot ignore one simple fact. I'd like for you to quick think of these people:

Casey James, Danny Gokey, Syesha Mercado, Melinda Doolittle, Elliot Yamin, Vonzell Solomon, Jasmine Trias, Kimberly Locke and Nikki McKibbin.

All of them left on this night in their respective years. In seasons 6 and 7, Melinda and Syesha sang in the 3rd and 2nd singing positions respectively.  Syesha's ouster was an oddity because she was in the year with Gaspuletta and he broke ALOT of the usual patterns that year. Melinda's was in an Idol Gives Back year where they couldn't bring themselves to dump a kid on a "Feel Good Night" and as a result, the contestant who should have left managed to get saved the following week and not only knock 2 other decent singers out of the competition but also managed to win the whole year.

All the rest in that list..... sang FIRST on a Top 3 night. A horrid pattern that cannot be ignored. I'm hoping that Scotty will be the third one to break this curse.

Hometown visits

http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1663916/american-idol-hometown-visit.jhtml?xrs=eml_MTVNews2-idol-homecoming

hmmmm... wonder who the favorite is over at MTV?

Jim C's Idol in 60 and a little extra

Blogger was a dink and a half this week and decided in it's infinite wisdom to crash during a very crucial point of the week..oO(I mean, srsly guys, Weds nite thru Friday afternoon?? Why not Monday or Tuesday..one of the deader nights???) So I had to resort to posting the usual entry elsewhere just so it was up. Here's the copy and pasted version of the entry (the usual pictures followed the entry):

2 Country kids, a rocker and the snarling howler

I know this won't make alot of sense to many on this site, but as Blogger (where I usually write this stuff these days) is down for the count at the moment and I absolutely need to get this entry written and posted somewhere....

Last night we had the Top 4 in American Idol. The songs this week were songs that inspired each contestant as well as a choice from the Lieber and Stoller catalog.

We also had Lady Freakie Gaga as a guest coach. I will, however, admit that she and Will.I.Am have been my favorite coaches for the entire season.

I'm going to bunch them up like I did last week because I'm short on time. Why? Mostly because I've been dawdling and not sure I really wanted to write this (the whole season's been like this, honestly), PLUS the number crunching's been so close that it'll be impossible to make a definitive pick as to who goes home (although I never really do anyhow) AND because Blogger's being a dink. Don't they KNOW this is writing day??? *le sigh*

They mixed up the singing order this week in that each one didn't sing in the same order the second time as the first. We've got 2 in GREEN and 2 in yellow.

James (Don't Stop Believing by Journey and Love Potion #9 by The Coasters ): He sang first and last this week. I guess they really wanna shove him through. Last night I kinda liked it and thought that the SUTA blast was somewhat warranted. HOWEVER, upon listening back.... this kinda blew chunks. The Glee kids did a much better version of this one, seriously. Ouch. His second song was definitely the better of the two this week. Even this wasn't really deserving of the colon singe blast we received. His odds dropped from last week and he's sitting at a +175 right now. I won't be surprised if it falls a bit farther this coming week. He rated a 2-4/3rd (yellow) on the Chart and a 4 on the Maps (8 wins and 4 losses). JLo was right, this wasn't the right song and he really needed to doJail House Rock or something like that. Although the Chart and Maps show him a bit lower and in danger, the RAW scores put him firmly in second.

Haley (Earth Song by Michael Jackson and I Who Have Nothing by Tom Jones): Bark bark snarl.... woof woof growl howl. To be honest, it wasn't even one of MJ's best either IMHO. She took a mediocre song and made it worse. Actually, the beginning was okish, then she broke into that one section and did a Professor Lupin impression. Before anyone barks at me for being mean.... that's actually much nicer than I wanna say. Giving stankface to the judges while they're critiquing you didn't help your case either. Her second song was much better than the first. There was some growl/snarl but not nearly as much as usual. Her odds rose this last week fairly substantially to a +750. On the Maps she scored a goose egg (8 wins and 8 losses) and the Chart places her at a 3-4/dead last. However, the RAW has her in a solid first. Odds, Maps and Chart show her possibly going home this week yet the RAW tells another story. This year, the RAW's been closer to being correct.

Scotty (Where Were You When the World Stopped Turning by Alan Jackson and Young Blood by The Coasters): Two very solid performances from Scotty, yet again. Of the two, I really liked the first over the second simply because when he sings those fun songs he tends to pull funny faces and I end up laughing through the performance. Does he need this show? Hell no. In fact, if the numbers are right, we may end up with a Daughtry moment and I'll have mixed emotions. Will I cry? Yeah, because one of my faves will be out in the 4th place yet again. However, it'll be a very good thing for him if he does leave now because he won't be roped into that hateful contract. Numbers-wise, I won't be shocked if he ends up going this week either. Oh granted his odds are the best of them all with a -110 (meaning you'd need to drop $110 on him to break even) and the Chart has him in a solid 1st place/GREEN, but the Maps and the RAW tell another story entirely. The RAW places him in a tied position with Lauren for 3rd and 4th position, which pretty much backs up my earlier claims that he and she have been splitting votes this season. The Maps have him at a 4 (wtf??) with a 9 state win (wtf??) and a 4 state loss (WTF????). I'm thinking Idol really wants him at least one more week so maybe I'll get lucky. Luckier still would be if they let him sing the pimp spot next week as he hasn't been there the entire season.

Lauren (Anyway by Martina McBride and Trouble by Elvis): She's got the voice to sing just about anything. Of the two performances, I preferred the first one simply because I don't think she pulled off the character needed for the second. Well, it started off with alot of potential, but she fell out of character about midway through. This will be a great song for her once she has a few more years on her, but right now, not so much. Her odds have dropped this week to a +600, which after stagnating for weeks and weeks pretty much has me worried. The Chart has her at a 2-3/GREEN, but means nothing as Pia was sent packing on a week where she was declared safe by the DI site. The Maps gave her a 9, with a 12 state win and a 3 state loss while the RAW places her in a tie with Scotty for 3-4th place.

So who goes home this week? Any one of them.

James: Had a less than stellar first song, but opened and closed the show AND the second song was better than the first. It's a matter of time before the public gets tired of the rocker wail.

Scotty: He peaked weeks ago and there isn't much more that he can learn from them there at this point short of how to sing without pulling faces when he sings the upbeat, fun songs and proper mic handling.

Haley: Why is she still here? The first song was the worst of the bunch, she was the only one who got any real negative comments (reverse psychology??) and sang in the middle of the night with 3 others singing after he performance.

Lauren: With Haley's antics (stankface, talking back, snarling first performance), it's easy to forget Lauren. Plus this poor gal's not only splitting votes with the only other country singer ( Scotty) but also with the only other girl in the competition. If she stays with those odds, it'll be a miracle.

According to the:

Chart: Haley

RAW: either Scotty or Lauren

Maps: Haley

Vegas: Haley

Polls:

MJ's: Lauren

Rickey's (which has rarely been wrong): Lauren

Looks like this week, if you have a vagina, you may as well get packed before the show.

And here's Jim C's entry for the week:

MTV Shows

Jim C's Idol in 60

MTV Shows

Then and Now: The cryin rocker, the Country kids, the growler and the howler

Not really certain what to think about last night's performances. Some were ok, some not so much. I think that I'm simply so over with the season already. The judging hit an all time low, with Randy declaring no fewer 4 as "In it to win it!!" Don't you think that if these kids auditioned, they're in it to win it? Not escaping notice of several writers that I've read so far is the fact the only contestant he DIDN'T say this about is Jacob. I think even they (the judges), no matter how much SUTA they blow, are getting tired of him.

Last night's show's theme was Then and Now. The kids were to sing one more recent song and one from back in the day. Just for ease of writing, I'm just going to lump each contestant's performances into section instead of breaking it down into each performance.

I'm also adding another chart to review. Debating on whether or not the RIGHT person goes home (and we all know who HE is), will determine whether or not I do a follow-up entry dissecting these figures.

James (Closer to the Edge by 30 Seconds to Mars and Without You by Harry Nilsson): Of the two performances, I have to say I liked the second better than the first. He was alot more restrained than the usual rocker wail and we got to see a song really effect him. Many people may not like the fact he cried on stage, but I thought that it just added to it. It's not as though he broke completely down and blubbered (like SOME people did earlier in the season... I so wish I could find that video...), but just a few tears. Money says that he totally lost it back stage afterwards and maybe it's a good thing it was the second performance of the night. His odds are still creeping up and he was at a +150 this week. With a 9 state win and only 1 state loss, he's in fairly good standing on the Maps. Even his rating of 2-5/2nd looks good, with the exception of the fact that he's listed as a B3. Then again, all of them (except Scotty, as usual) are listed with a B3 in yellow. The RAW scores place him roughly in 2nd as well.

Jacob (No Air by Jordan Sparks & Chris Brown and Love Hurts by Nazareth): *pleads a 5th* I don't much like the first song, in fact it's more annoying than Hey Jude, The Long and Winding Road, Unchained Melody and Mr Roboto combined. Ok, maybe not quite THAT bad as I really loathe the latter 2 of that grouping. At least he wasn't dumb enough to attempt This Is My Now. They were harping on him not knowing who he is, but dude seriously knows who he is. The problem is that they keep doing what they said they wouldn't be doing this year and that is roping the kids into themes. Jacob need to be allowed to do the sappy, drippy, power ballads and gospel in order to fare well in this competition. On his part, he needs to learn to dial back a bit on the over-acting and histronics. The first song, the judges basically poo-pooed on him by the second one, they nucleared our collective sphincters. His odds have dropped to a +2000 and he's rated a 2-5/4th on the Chart. He's the only one who didn't win any states so there's no off-set to the 10 state loss in the Maps. The second spot singing position will not being doing him any favors because a good many times the 2nd singer in the Top 5 ends up going home. RAW scores list both his numbers at the bottom. This doesn't really mean anything because he's been on the bottom of that chart for a great deal of the season.

Lauren (Flat on the Floor by Carrie Underwood and Unchained Melody by The Righteous Brothers): Of the 2 performances, I really liked the first one. The second one, not so much (refer to the comment in Jacob's).    She sang it well, but really kind of lacked the background/maturity/seasoning... well something for the subject to be able to pull it off really well. Yes, Chicagolady, take a shot because I did say, in a way, that she was too young for it. Haley may have been able to do a better job with it, even with all that snarling and growling she does. She can really do well on the ballads, but she's absolutely wonderful in the faster paced songs with sass. Having to do the slower ballad, although well known, second really didn't do her many favors at all. Her odds have remained at +300 for another week in a row and she Charted as a 2-5/3rd. She had an 8 state win but lost 2 for a total of 6 on the Maps. RAW chart has her tied in 3rd with Scotty.

Scotty (Gone by Montgomery Gentry and Always on My Mind by Elvis): Although the first song was really fun to watch (Chicagolady didn't like it), his second performance was actually my favorite of his (minor, non-panty involved squwee). The problem with Scotty is that, for the most part, he turns in a solidly consistent performance from week to week. The fans of this show want to see growth, and unfortunately Scotty doesn't deliver this because he's just really that good already. No growth means the fans start getting bored, though. His odds have him still creeping up, even after the trip to the "B3" last week (no I don't believe he truly belonged there at all), and he's at a +100 now. He is the only one, again, that is in the GREEN with a solid 1st place showing. This week's Maps give him a 14 state win. However, the RAW scores tell another story entirely. On that chart, he's tied with Lauren for 3rd. This needs to be taken into consideration while trying to make our picks.

Haley (You and I, an unreleased song, by Lady Gaga and House of the Rising Sun by The Animals):  Well, at least the growling will be appropriate with those artist choices. Not so certain I liked the first song, although I'll admit that I liked it better than most of the Weirdo Queen's stuff. It was really chancy to take on a new song that only the Little Monsters will know and if you don't slay it, they won't vote for you. Of the two songs presented, I much preferred the former over the latter. Is it me, or did she look stoned while performing? Unless she was trying to look sexy... the operative word being trying. Her odds had a huge increase this week from a +2500 to a +1400 and she hit the Chart at a 2-5/DEAD LAST. As we know, the Chart has been a bit less than forthcoming with an accurate read thanks to the new online voting. She had a 7 win, 2 loss on the Maps for a total of 5 states. The pimp spot may still help her yet. The RAW chart places her in a solid 1st.

So who should go home?
Jacob: By all rights, he should be going home tonight. The Maps say it, the RAW scores say it, Vegas is saying it. A second position singing placing and those horrid, ear bleeding, nails on chalk board performances didn't help him any. I doubt VFTW could even save him at this point.  However, if you dig back into the RAW charts, you'll see he's been in the bottom for weeks while others went home in his place. I have to question that if he's really all that bad, why do they keep him around? I mean other than driving the fans insane. Conspiracy theories say that the Black Diva Never Dies (as coined by Rickey from Rickey.org) and they stay well beyond their welcome. To be honest, if they can't keep up, get rid of them. I don't care who they are.

Who will be in the B2?
No, that wasn't a typo. We're getting late enough in the game to know that they usually only call two in the bottom.

Haley: States say she'll be there while the RAW score says she won't. Her odd are rising but she charted dead last. Granted, she had the pimp spot BUT she sang a song that is relatively unknown to a great many of us and then couldn't even pull off a decent classic, looking much like an animal that's over-indulged in rotten fruits.

James: A first place singing spot won't help. The tears on the second song may or may not be a factor. RAW scores have him solid second so I don't think he'll go, but anything is possible at this stage.

Scotty: Always solid, nothing much new. States keep him, Chart keeps him, Vegas keeps him, but the RAW scores tell another story.

Lauren: In the rush to save Haley because her first song got trashed, Lauren may get forgotten and fall through the cracks. That second song choice won't help her at all. The Maps have her in the middle, the Chart has her in the middle, the RAW score has her in the middle and Vegas has her stagnating. A shame because she was a front runner when she started. This isn't American Mediocrity, ya know.

Shocker will put either Lauren or Scotty in the B2 with Jacob. Bigger Shocker will put Haley down there with one of them and biggest shock will be if one of those 3 go home instead of Jacob. If that happens, I recommend everyone scream shenanigans.

L-O-V-E By Casey Abrams

And this too.... shoulda been much more of this. Holy cow. I wonder how many more instruments he plays??!!!???

Lullaby of Birdland

Casey Casey Casey! You needed to bring more of this and less rabid dog! *sighs* damnitall!