Country Show down

So, we had a little bit of drama going into the show last night. It got out that Lauren was so sick that she might not be able to perform and that they were looking to Haley to step into her place. Thank goodness it didn't come to that. I don't think I could have handled another night of an over-caffeinated Prof. Lupin in heat.

Both Scotty and Lauren did well. Scotty's was pretty much the same performance we've been getting all season long. I half expect at this point that he could have phoned the bugger in and it wouldn't have made a bit of difference to his fans. Lauren was a bit of a surprise to see her do so well, considering the big deal they made about her blown vocal chord. I'm beginning to wonder if the producers see which way this season's going to head and in an effort to make it a closer race, leaked info in an effort to get some sympathy votes for her.Scotty won the toss, he deferred to her and she chose the pimp spot. So yet again, Scotty's fans are denied seeing him close out a show.

So who will win?

Well, Scotty's been solid all season with maybe 1 or 2 not so hot performances. However, it's out there that many of the country stations don't want to have to work with him. Maybe his sound is too old school for their liking? Lauren's got more of a commercial, cross-over sound to her and should do very well, if not better than Scotty. If you have an ITunes account, I highly encourage you check out the studio versions of their coronation singles. I firmly believe that hers will get much more air time than his.

As of Sunday, Scotty's odds were at a -800 on the site I go to for the figures. This means in order to come out even, you'd need to put down $800. With Lauren, on the other hand, her odds have her at 400 which means that if you were smart and put $100 on her last week AND she manages to win.... you'd get that and $400.

RAW: The chart for the RAW scores is showing 3 out of Scotty's 4 lines receiving more votes than all of Lauren's. This particular chart hasn't been totally accurate all season, but it's been closer to right than the rest of the site. The most interesting part of the screen shot below is that they're promoting Lauren's single and no matter how many times I refreshed the page, I never once saw a promo for Scotty.... hm.

Maps: With a 19 state win with 17 losses, Lauren actually bested Scotty who ended up with score of -2. In the last 4 years (DI doesn't go back any farther), only 50% of the time the Maps were correct. I would guess that Seasons 1-5 more than likely reflected what Seasons 6 & 7 did, with the runner up winning fewer states overall. However, Seasons 8 & 9 were a bit on the strange side with the runner up actually scoring higher on the winner map than the champion did.

Chart: According to the Chart, we have another landslide winner. It wasn't even close. It was Scotty right from the starting gate, and he wasn't even going full steam. VFTW is going to love this and you can damn well bet they'll declare a victory.

Wikipedia: According to the number crunchers,  more often than not, the one in the pimp spot wins. Of  9 seasons, there were only 3 instances where the person who sang first actually won this contest.

We've had a WMWG champion the last 3 years and the only was I see this changing is if the producers decide that they're simply not going to allow that to happen. Either that or Scotty decides he doesn't really want it that bad and defers the crown to Lauren.

Two girls one guy

Here we are at the Top 3. Holy cow has this season just flown by. Yeah, I may have had many weeks where I simply didn't feel like writing anything, but I didn't really get to the point of wishing the season was over. I think I'm actually going to miss the show while it's on hiatus. Go figure. Oh wait, The Voice is on now and X-Factor will be coming this fall... maybe it won't be so bad. Nah. I'm gonna miss this show even with the constant SUTA-fest.

This week the contestants had 3 songs a piece. One song that they chose for themselves, one that Jimmy Iovine chose for them and then one that the judges picked. Odd. They said judges and none of them mentioned that so and so chose the song for them so I have to wonder if it was a group effort this time around because they didn't have that opinionated judge on the panel this time. Ok ok. With the constant SUTA blasts for every contestant this season, I did miss having him around.

Beyonce was our guest mentor this week for the kids' personal choice performances. We also got to see her new video which was supposed to be out weeks ago but she'd had to "perfect" it or some sort. I half expect that she'd planned on dropping it, had things all in motion to do so and then Idol asked her to make an appearance. At that point, she probably put the kibosh on the release, realizing she could get it out to many more people all at the same time. It's what I would have done, at least. I personally wasn't fond of the video. The best part, in my opinion was that Friesian stallion she arrived on in the beginning of the video.  Wasn't he just GORGEOUS??

Yet again, Scotty topped the chart with a solid 1st listing in GREEN and all saw an increase in their odds.
Haley came in solid first in the RAW this week. Even more of a solid first than the last two weeks as all three of her lines beat out the other two left in the competition.

After each round, Mr Seacrest asked the judges who won the round. Assuming that a contestant can get a possible 3 points each round, and they sweep the night, there's a possible of 9 total points for the night.

Hey wait. Scotty isn't in the pimp spot this week either??? WTF?  Not a single show this year has he closed out. This is so not fair.

Scotty (Amazed by Lonestar, Are You Gonna Kiss Me or Not by Thompson Square and She Believes in Me by Kenny Rogers): I didn't know the second song at all so I had to check out the original. I love when a contestant in Idol makes me do that. Scotty had 3 fairly solid performances this week, again. No real surprise there. Personally, the 1st and the 3rd have had me hitting the repeat link rather ummm repeatedly. Two and a half panties out of three this week. His odds have gone up yet again to a -250 (meaning you'd need to drop $250 to even place a bet and break even if he wins). The Chart places him in 1st/ GREEN but the RAW tells another story. At quick glance he looks to be tied with Lauren for second, however if you go by the phone numbers, Lauren's got him beat in 2 of the 3 lines. The Maps give him an 11 with 17 wins and 6 losses.
Judges score: 2 (both in round 2)

Lauren (Wild One by Faith Hill, If I Die Young by Perry and I Hope You Dance by Lee Ann Womack): Yet again, Mr Iovine chooses a song for the contestant that I don't know. Sometimes this ploy works out and sometimes it doesn't. As was in Scotty's case, a little known song from a little known band really worked out well. Of the 3 performances, I like the second and third as I don't quite believe that she has it in her to cover a Faith Hill tune. Overall, she had a fairly decent night, even with the wardrobe malfunction that made her ditch the hose and have to put make-up on her legs. Her odds went up last week, after a slight dip from the week before, to a +425.  Not as high as they had been, but not too bad.  The Chart has her at 2-3/2nd and the RAW places her tied, but just possibly edging out Scotty with 2 of the 3 possible lines beating him. The Maps give her a mere 3 states with 13 won and 11 lost. Poor gal is still splitting votes with Scotty thanks to the genre and if she goes home, it'll simply be because of that.
Judges score: 3 (1 in round 2 and 2 in round 3)


Howley Haley (What Is and What Should Never Be by Led Zepplin, Rhiannon by Fleetwood Mac and You Oughta Know by Alanis Morissette): Way to toss her under the bus Mr Iovine! You give the kids some little known songs by lesser known artists and saddle Haley with a song that is going to draw comparisons to Stevie Nicks. Bad enough she gets stuck with this song, which is alone enough to draw the comparison, but the wind machine too. Nice job there. All I can think is that maybe he's hearing something that we aren't and thinks that she can handle the extra scrutiny. Anyhow, I'd much rather talk about that tumble she took in that first performance. Kudos for getting right up and keeping going. It's a true sign of a professional. Me, I would have either just finished the song seated or lost it by laughing (and I tend to snort when I laugh). All we got from you is a bigger smile and a slight giggle to acknowledge that you messed up. All we lost was a few words as the wind got knocked from you and you regained your composure. Bravo. The last song, I want to know what the judges were smoking. Unless they, too, were trying to see if they could get rid of her? A better Alanis song for her would have been Ironic.. and THAT one's already appropriate for the show, no line rewrite needed to be able to air it.  Of the 3 songs, I only liked the first one. Something didn't feel right with her 2nd and we lose her a bit on the lower notes in the last one. Personally, I thought that last one was a lamentable mess.  Her odds have been going up by leaps and bounds and she's now at a +400, ahead of Lauren. The Chart places her at 2-3/3rd, yet the RAW has her firmly (all 3 lines, mind you) in first. The Maps give her a 3 with a 11 win and 8 loss in the states.
Judges score: 4 (she swept the first round and got her last vote in round 3)

So, who goes home?
Rickey.org's poll: Lauren
Maps: Lauren
Chart: Haley
RAW: either Scotty or Lauren (most likely the former)
Vegas odds on BetEd: Lauren
Judges scores: Scotty

Scotty: Although he's breezed through the competition, I do have to wonder one thing. Even though he sounds nothing like the last 3 winners (thank goodness), does Idol really want another Caucasian Male winner? I may love that deep country voice, but he's really rather limited in what he can sing. I'm more of a pop and rock girl and he's all country.

Lauren: Solid performances but she's splitting votes with more than one person still. She splits the country vote with Scotty and the ones that want a female winner for a change with Haley. If she goes home it's because she fell through the cracks.

Haley: She growls, snarls and all but drools through her performances. Working for her is that she's memorable and, when she's not going all Jacob Black or Henry Foss on us, she actually has a decent voice and fabulous stage presence. She gets up there and owns the stage, even if she trips and falls midway through her number. Also working for her is the fact that she's an alternative contestant for those that don't like country. Top things all off, I suspect she's alot more flexible in the type of songs she can do which means, in the long run, that she'll appeal to a larger audience than Scotty (who will be pure country, for sure) or Lauren (who will be more of a pop country like Shania). What's this mean in simpler terms? She's more marketable. If she's sent packing, it'll simply be because the public really wants a guy in the finale OR that country's the hot thing this year.

As much as I would like to call it as a female definitely leaving (especially where the Chart and Maps are concerned), I cannot ignore one simple fact. I'd like for you to quick think of these people:

Casey James, Danny Gokey, Syesha Mercado, Melinda Doolittle, Elliot Yamin, Vonzell Solomon, Jasmine Trias, Kimberly Locke and Nikki McKibbin.

All of them left on this night in their respective years. In seasons 6 and 7, Melinda and Syesha sang in the 3rd and 2nd singing positions respectively.  Syesha's ouster was an oddity because she was in the year with Gaspuletta and he broke ALOT of the usual patterns that year. Melinda's was in an Idol Gives Back year where they couldn't bring themselves to dump a kid on a "Feel Good Night" and as a result, the contestant who should have left managed to get saved the following week and not only knock 2 other decent singers out of the competition but also managed to win the whole year.

All the rest in that list..... sang FIRST on a Top 3 night. A horrid pattern that cannot be ignored. I'm hoping that Scotty will be the third one to break this curse.

Jim C's Idol in 60 and a little extra

Blogger was a dink and a half this week and decided in it's infinite wisdom to crash during a very crucial point of the week..oO(I mean, srsly guys, Weds nite thru Friday afternoon?? Why not Monday or Tuesday..one of the deader nights???) So I had to resort to posting the usual entry elsewhere just so it was up. Here's the copy and pasted version of the entry (the usual pictures followed the entry):

2 Country kids, a rocker and the snarling howler

I know this won't make alot of sense to many on this site, but as Blogger (where I usually write this stuff these days) is down for the count at the moment and I absolutely need to get this entry written and posted somewhere....

Last night we had the Top 4 in American Idol. The songs this week were songs that inspired each contestant as well as a choice from the Lieber and Stoller catalog.

We also had Lady Freakie Gaga as a guest coach. I will, however, admit that she and Will.I.Am have been my favorite coaches for the entire season.

I'm going to bunch them up like I did last week because I'm short on time. Why? Mostly because I've been dawdling and not sure I really wanted to write this (the whole season's been like this, honestly), PLUS the number crunching's been so close that it'll be impossible to make a definitive pick as to who goes home (although I never really do anyhow) AND because Blogger's being a dink. Don't they KNOW this is writing day??? *le sigh*

They mixed up the singing order this week in that each one didn't sing in the same order the second time as the first. We've got 2 in GREEN and 2 in yellow.

James (Don't Stop Believing by Journey and Love Potion #9 by The Coasters ): He sang first and last this week. I guess they really wanna shove him through. Last night I kinda liked it and thought that the SUTA blast was somewhat warranted. HOWEVER, upon listening back.... this kinda blew chunks. The Glee kids did a much better version of this one, seriously. Ouch. His second song was definitely the better of the two this week. Even this wasn't really deserving of the colon singe blast we received. His odds dropped from last week and he's sitting at a +175 right now. I won't be surprised if it falls a bit farther this coming week. He rated a 2-4/3rd (yellow) on the Chart and a 4 on the Maps (8 wins and 4 losses). JLo was right, this wasn't the right song and he really needed to doJail House Rock or something like that. Although the Chart and Maps show him a bit lower and in danger, the RAW scores put him firmly in second.

Haley (Earth Song by Michael Jackson and I Who Have Nothing by Tom Jones): Bark bark snarl.... woof woof growl howl. To be honest, it wasn't even one of MJ's best either IMHO. She took a mediocre song and made it worse. Actually, the beginning was okish, then she broke into that one section and did a Professor Lupin impression. Before anyone barks at me for being mean.... that's actually much nicer than I wanna say. Giving stankface to the judges while they're critiquing you didn't help your case either. Her second song was much better than the first. There was some growl/snarl but not nearly as much as usual. Her odds rose this last week fairly substantially to a +750. On the Maps she scored a goose egg (8 wins and 8 losses) and the Chart places her at a 3-4/dead last. However, the RAW has her in a solid first. Odds, Maps and Chart show her possibly going home this week yet the RAW tells another story. This year, the RAW's been closer to being correct.

Scotty (Where Were You When the World Stopped Turning by Alan Jackson and Young Blood by The Coasters): Two very solid performances from Scotty, yet again. Of the two, I really liked the first over the second simply because when he sings those fun songs he tends to pull funny faces and I end up laughing through the performance. Does he need this show? Hell no. In fact, if the numbers are right, we may end up with a Daughtry moment and I'll have mixed emotions. Will I cry? Yeah, because one of my faves will be out in the 4th place yet again. However, it'll be a very good thing for him if he does leave now because he won't be roped into that hateful contract. Numbers-wise, I won't be shocked if he ends up going this week either. Oh granted his odds are the best of them all with a -110 (meaning you'd need to drop $110 on him to break even) and the Chart has him in a solid 1st place/GREEN, but the Maps and the RAW tell another story entirely. The RAW places him in a tied position with Lauren for 3rd and 4th position, which pretty much backs up my earlier claims that he and she have been splitting votes this season. The Maps have him at a 4 (wtf??) with a 9 state win (wtf??) and a 4 state loss (WTF????). I'm thinking Idol really wants him at least one more week so maybe I'll get lucky. Luckier still would be if they let him sing the pimp spot next week as he hasn't been there the entire season.

Lauren (Anyway by Martina McBride and Trouble by Elvis): She's got the voice to sing just about anything. Of the two performances, I preferred the first one simply because I don't think she pulled off the character needed for the second. Well, it started off with alot of potential, but she fell out of character about midway through. This will be a great song for her once she has a few more years on her, but right now, not so much. Her odds have dropped this week to a +600, which after stagnating for weeks and weeks pretty much has me worried. The Chart has her at a 2-3/GREEN, but means nothing as Pia was sent packing on a week where she was declared safe by the DI site. The Maps gave her a 9, with a 12 state win and a 3 state loss while the RAW places her in a tie with Scotty for 3-4th place.

So who goes home this week? Any one of them.

James: Had a less than stellar first song, but opened and closed the show AND the second song was better than the first. It's a matter of time before the public gets tired of the rocker wail.

Scotty: He peaked weeks ago and there isn't much more that he can learn from them there at this point short of how to sing without pulling faces when he sings the upbeat, fun songs and proper mic handling.

Haley: Why is she still here? The first song was the worst of the bunch, she was the only one who got any real negative comments (reverse psychology??) and sang in the middle of the night with 3 others singing after he performance.

Lauren: With Haley's antics (stankface, talking back, snarling first performance), it's easy to forget Lauren. Plus this poor gal's not only splitting votes with the only other country singer ( Scotty) but also with the only other girl in the competition. If she stays with those odds, it'll be a miracle.

According to the:

Chart: Haley

RAW: either Scotty or Lauren

Maps: Haley

Vegas: Haley

Polls:

MJ's: Lauren

Rickey's (which has rarely been wrong): Lauren

Looks like this week, if you have a vagina, you may as well get packed before the show.

And here's Jim C's entry for the week:

MTV Shows

Then and Now: The cryin rocker, the Country kids, the growler and the howler

Not really certain what to think about last night's performances. Some were ok, some not so much. I think that I'm simply so over with the season already. The judging hit an all time low, with Randy declaring no fewer 4 as "In it to win it!!" Don't you think that if these kids auditioned, they're in it to win it? Not escaping notice of several writers that I've read so far is the fact the only contestant he DIDN'T say this about is Jacob. I think even they (the judges), no matter how much SUTA they blow, are getting tired of him.

Last night's show's theme was Then and Now. The kids were to sing one more recent song and one from back in the day. Just for ease of writing, I'm just going to lump each contestant's performances into section instead of breaking it down into each performance.

I'm also adding another chart to review. Debating on whether or not the RIGHT person goes home (and we all know who HE is), will determine whether or not I do a follow-up entry dissecting these figures.

James (Closer to the Edge by 30 Seconds to Mars and Without You by Harry Nilsson): Of the two performances, I have to say I liked the second better than the first. He was alot more restrained than the usual rocker wail and we got to see a song really effect him. Many people may not like the fact he cried on stage, but I thought that it just added to it. It's not as though he broke completely down and blubbered (like SOME people did earlier in the season... I so wish I could find that video...), but just a few tears. Money says that he totally lost it back stage afterwards and maybe it's a good thing it was the second performance of the night. His odds are still creeping up and he was at a +150 this week. With a 9 state win and only 1 state loss, he's in fairly good standing on the Maps. Even his rating of 2-5/2nd looks good, with the exception of the fact that he's listed as a B3. Then again, all of them (except Scotty, as usual) are listed with a B3 in yellow. The RAW scores place him roughly in 2nd as well.

Jacob (No Air by Jordan Sparks & Chris Brown and Love Hurts by Nazareth): *pleads a 5th* I don't much like the first song, in fact it's more annoying than Hey Jude, The Long and Winding Road, Unchained Melody and Mr Roboto combined. Ok, maybe not quite THAT bad as I really loathe the latter 2 of that grouping. At least he wasn't dumb enough to attempt This Is My Now. They were harping on him not knowing who he is, but dude seriously knows who he is. The problem is that they keep doing what they said they wouldn't be doing this year and that is roping the kids into themes. Jacob need to be allowed to do the sappy, drippy, power ballads and gospel in order to fare well in this competition. On his part, he needs to learn to dial back a bit on the over-acting and histronics. The first song, the judges basically poo-pooed on him by the second one, they nucleared our collective sphincters. His odds have dropped to a +2000 and he's rated a 2-5/4th on the Chart. He's the only one who didn't win any states so there's no off-set to the 10 state loss in the Maps. The second spot singing position will not being doing him any favors because a good many times the 2nd singer in the Top 5 ends up going home. RAW scores list both his numbers at the bottom. This doesn't really mean anything because he's been on the bottom of that chart for a great deal of the season.

Lauren (Flat on the Floor by Carrie Underwood and Unchained Melody by The Righteous Brothers): Of the 2 performances, I really liked the first one. The second one, not so much (refer to the comment in Jacob's).    She sang it well, but really kind of lacked the background/maturity/seasoning... well something for the subject to be able to pull it off really well. Yes, Chicagolady, take a shot because I did say, in a way, that she was too young for it. Haley may have been able to do a better job with it, even with all that snarling and growling she does. She can really do well on the ballads, but she's absolutely wonderful in the faster paced songs with sass. Having to do the slower ballad, although well known, second really didn't do her many favors at all. Her odds have remained at +300 for another week in a row and she Charted as a 2-5/3rd. She had an 8 state win but lost 2 for a total of 6 on the Maps. RAW chart has her tied in 3rd with Scotty.

Scotty (Gone by Montgomery Gentry and Always on My Mind by Elvis): Although the first song was really fun to watch (Chicagolady didn't like it), his second performance was actually my favorite of his (minor, non-panty involved squwee). The problem with Scotty is that, for the most part, he turns in a solidly consistent performance from week to week. The fans of this show want to see growth, and unfortunately Scotty doesn't deliver this because he's just really that good already. No growth means the fans start getting bored, though. His odds have him still creeping up, even after the trip to the "B3" last week (no I don't believe he truly belonged there at all), and he's at a +100 now. He is the only one, again, that is in the GREEN with a solid 1st place showing. This week's Maps give him a 14 state win. However, the RAW scores tell another story entirely. On that chart, he's tied with Lauren for 3rd. This needs to be taken into consideration while trying to make our picks.

Haley (You and I, an unreleased song, by Lady Gaga and House of the Rising Sun by The Animals):  Well, at least the growling will be appropriate with those artist choices. Not so certain I liked the first song, although I'll admit that I liked it better than most of the Weirdo Queen's stuff. It was really chancy to take on a new song that only the Little Monsters will know and if you don't slay it, they won't vote for you. Of the two songs presented, I much preferred the former over the latter. Is it me, or did she look stoned while performing? Unless she was trying to look sexy... the operative word being trying. Her odds had a huge increase this week from a +2500 to a +1400 and she hit the Chart at a 2-5/DEAD LAST. As we know, the Chart has been a bit less than forthcoming with an accurate read thanks to the new online voting. She had a 7 win, 2 loss on the Maps for a total of 5 states. The pimp spot may still help her yet. The RAW chart places her in a solid 1st.

So who should go home?
Jacob: By all rights, he should be going home tonight. The Maps say it, the RAW scores say it, Vegas is saying it. A second position singing placing and those horrid, ear bleeding, nails on chalk board performances didn't help him any. I doubt VFTW could even save him at this point.  However, if you dig back into the RAW charts, you'll see he's been in the bottom for weeks while others went home in his place. I have to question that if he's really all that bad, why do they keep him around? I mean other than driving the fans insane. Conspiracy theories say that the Black Diva Never Dies (as coined by Rickey from Rickey.org) and they stay well beyond their welcome. To be honest, if they can't keep up, get rid of them. I don't care who they are.

Who will be in the B2?
No, that wasn't a typo. We're getting late enough in the game to know that they usually only call two in the bottom.

Haley: States say she'll be there while the RAW score says she won't. Her odd are rising but she charted dead last. Granted, she had the pimp spot BUT she sang a song that is relatively unknown to a great many of us and then couldn't even pull off a decent classic, looking much like an animal that's over-indulged in rotten fruits.

James: A first place singing spot won't help. The tears on the second song may or may not be a factor. RAW scores have him solid second so I don't think he'll go, but anything is possible at this stage.

Scotty: Always solid, nothing much new. States keep him, Chart keeps him, Vegas keeps him, but the RAW scores tell another story.

Lauren: In the rush to save Haley because her first song got trashed, Lauren may get forgotten and fall through the cracks. That second song choice won't help her at all. The Maps have her in the middle, the Chart has her in the middle, the RAW score has her in the middle and Vegas has her stagnating. A shame because she was a front runner when she started. This isn't American Mediocrity, ya know.

Shocker will put either Lauren or Scotty in the B2 with Jacob. Bigger Shocker will put Haley down there with one of them and biggest shock will be if one of those 3 go home instead of Jacob. If that happens, I recommend everyone scream shenanigans.

Underwhelmed

This is going to be another short entry simply because I have a couple places I need to be today and I'm not certain if I'll have time when I get home to do a proper entry. Then again, my gal in Chicago said she was perfectly fine with the shorter entry and since no one else has chimed in (I mean, really, who is honestly reading my blatherings anyhow??)................

I'm not sure what it is. The group has been so talented this year that the entire Top 10 will be having recording contracts, I'm sure. So why am I simply not overly excited. I feel that same blah as I have had the last few years and we see what kind of winners we've had recently.

I somewhat enjoyed most of the performances last night and one of the duets was actually a bit better than I expected it to be, especially since the pairing consisted of a rocker wail and gospel boy. Even though it was better, I half expect that it's because of James' performance in it and not so much Jacob's.

The only one in GREEN is Scotty, again. Although it took him longer to get there last night than it has all season. All others are listed as B3.

Jacob: 1-6/3rd, -6 on the Map (no wins, 6 losses) and odds holding even at +1600

Lauren: 2-6/4th, 5 on the Map (no losses), and odds that went up again to +300

Scotty: 1-3/1st, 12 on the Map (no losses) and odds still on the rise to a +110

James: 1-6/ 2nd, 4 on the Maps (5 wins, 1 loss) and odds that rose to a +250

Casey: 2-6/LAST, 4 on the Maps (no losses) and odds holding at +1200

Haley: 2-6/5th, 2 on the Maps (4 wins, 2 losses), her odds fell to a +2500

Who goes home?

Odds say Haley with Casey and Jacob joining her in the B3

States say Jacob with Haley and either James or Casey joining in the B3 (either one being a "shock")

Bigger shock would be to put Scotty in the B3, although I really don't see him being there this week either.

Common factor is Jacob and I will not be surprised to see him go. He needed to go weeks ago. At this point, anyone other than Jacob being shown the door will be a "shock".

You know it's a bad night when I actually preferred the girls

Greetings from DC!

Just a quick drop before running to breakfast and another day out and about. I think today's the zoo as it's a decent day for it. Nice, not hot, and a tad overcast.

Caught most of the show last night and am not so certain I should have bothered. I missed Scotty completely and had to catch him on Rickey's site. His performance did nothing for me this week. Not at all. It was so bland and safe and for some reason the performance was cheesier than usual. Now don't get me wrong, I love me some cheese. However, this wasn't cheddar, jack or Monterey, it was more like Cheese-Whiz and I abhor that stuff. No squwee for him this week. James was ok-ish, a bit more screamy than usual. From what I heard of Haley (I was in another room getting ready for a shower), she actually was on key and I found myself looking forward to getting her ITunes number this week. Jacob (I was still in the other room at this point) sounded like Stefano and I didn't recognize the song right off. Not a good thing. What a lamentable mess. I liked Casey's number. I think he really needs to work on the breath support a bit. That will be a good song to do on the tour once it's polished up some. Stefano (BARF). Omg... the only Ne-Yo song I really liked and he sucked the crap out of it. So not cool. I absolutely LOVED Lauren this week. I can't wait to get home and buy that ITune.

Most likely candidates for the B3:

Jacob & Stefano: Easily the worst two of the night. Jacob's song was unrecognizable and Stefano Nosferatu'd  a wonderful Dance tune.

Who might join them:

Casey: Too little, too late and at this stage of the game, your breath support should be much better

James: Too screechy tonight. You can do better than that. The theatrics were great though.

Who should be in B3, but most likely won't unless the producers decide to give him a huge kick in the ass:

Scotty: Cheese factor aside, a first singing position and a too too safe number should put him there. The numbers I've seen this morning dictate that he won't be there, though.

Basically, if you're sporting sausage and need a jock... then you'd better just pack.

Idol needs to come with warning signs

Edits on 4/14/11 @ 3:34pm.

This week's gonna be a short one because I have a long day tomorrow and need to be in bed like 90 minutes ago (ok, more like 2 hours). I won't be posting the Maps or Chart tonight as the final figures don't get tallied until 3am or so (we have to wait on Alaska and Hawaii) and I simply cannot stay up that long today. If I arrive home early enough on Thursday, I'll post them then. So far Scotty has a huge lead over the pack with Lauren just a little behind. All but Scotty and James have lost at least 1 state, with Jacob down by 3 and Stefano down by 2. This more than likely will change by tomorrow. Neither Map changed much from my sleep shift until just a few moments ago, but one opinion has changed.

The odds on the gender of the winner are: female at +250 , male -350.

This week we had songs from the Silver Screen. The judges blew so much SUTA tonight that it was pathetic.

We had Will.I.Am again this week and ya know, he gave much better advice over all than Jimmy. I say we vote Jimmy off and let Will take his place for the rest of the season. The kids don't need the advice from a hack that thinks something sounds good. They need it from an actual artist that KNOWS what works and what won't.

Paul (Old Fashioned Rock N Roll by Bob Seger): He has a first spot sing position and he's the poster child of that damned site. Even with the awfulness of the performance, we began the night with a dose of SUTA worthy enough to give our colons a minor sunburn. We may still be able to sit, but it's not overly comfortable. Paul's odds are UP to +2500 this week. First singing spot and a lamentable performance have him in danger this week. He listed as a 3-8/ B3/ 7th and had a 1 win/1 loss for a zero on the Maps.

Lauren (The Climb by Miley Cyrus): Not great, but not bad. A fairly decent, yet predictable, attempt. I am worried about her singing position. We got some more SUTA with her. Enough to easily take the sunburn up to a second degree. I'm afraid at this point she's splitting votes with Scotty and is going to lose out. Lauren's odds are UP to +330. She really needs to step up and show how great she can be. I feel that she's slipping backwards and this is NOT the time to start doing that. She listed at a 2-8/B3/ 3rd with a 5 state total (6 win/ 1 loss).


Joey Tribbiani Stefano (End of the Road by Boyz II Men): Ok. What was that rule again? Don't sing about going home or the end of anything. Why? It sends a subliminal message. *Gasp gasp* *lick* *Gasp* *BIG NOTE held* *lip lick* *GAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAASp* Ok. I think I covered the whole song. The SUTA went up to just beyond 3rd degree levels and now I can't sit. Looks like it's going to be a long night. Stefano's stock dropped by 1000 to a +4000. If I didn't despise a couple of the others so much more, I'd be screaming to send this one home. Considering the way the Maps look right this moment, I may just get my wish. He listed at a 3-8/B3/5th with a zero total on the Maps (2 wins/ 2 losses).

Scotty (Cross My Heart by George Strait): Squwee! Ok. So. I have a soft spot for him. Will he win? More than likely not. Why? Because I really like him and my choices have only won ONCE in the last 7 years that I've watched so I'm not due for a win any too soon. The minute they said he was singing a song from Pure Country, I so knew this was going to be the one he picked. Unfortunately, this just goes to show how predictable he's gotten. With the figures I'm seeing so far, he aint going anywhere this week either. Just a word of advice? Lose that one hand gesture. There's a reason JLo said she thought you had some more flavor in there and asked if you watched rap videos the other week. That hand gesture is why she asked it, I'm sure. A couple more notes incase you decide to sing from George Strait's library again. Number one, lose the back-up singers because they aren't doing you any favors in most of the songs you're choosing. Number two, George Strait's got more drawl so lay it on a little thicker, please. Scotty is UP to +125 this week. Even though he sang mid-pack, he manage to hit the Chart with a solid 1/GREEN with a 13 state win on the Maps.

Casey (Nature Boy by Nat King Cole): I wasn't familiar with this song, but I kinda dug what he did up there on stage. That said, I have to wonder if the general voting public is even going to KNOW that song or artist. Is it going to translate well enough to keep him out of trouble? I'm with JLo, "I hope America gets that". The numbers aren't looking so good right now for him. Casey broke even from last week and still holds at a +1200. He listed at a 3-8/B3/ DEAD LAST with a 1 state total (2 wins/1 loss). Things don't look so good for him right now. I think my opinion last night was accurate, it didn't translate to the masses. Then again, most true artists don't.

Haley (Call Me by Blondie): I didn't like this at all. It start rough and in my opinion, you need to be spot on in the beginning and at the end. You want a good first impression and a nice lasting one. She failed to do this for me. Then again, I don't like Haley much either. Thankfully, the judges didn't much like her either. They didn't pan her, but at least my colon got a little break.

Haley is UP from last week to a +1500. She listed with a 3-8/ B3 / 6th rating and has a total of 4 on the Maps (5 wins and 1 loss). I'm not going to count her out of the B3 simply because Pia was in precisely the same boat last week with a decent amount of states won, but still got sent home.

Jacob (Bridge Over Troubled Water by Simon and Garfunkel): Thank GOD they called him out on that crap he pulled last week. Can we send him home NOW? Puh-LEEEEZ?? That high power note was just plain painful to listen to. It was so bad, even Haley was howling. The SUTA received was such to the point that Chicagolady raced to put some reflective shorts on so her nether regions were protected. Unfortunately Omar doesn't make them in my size, and I certainly can't trust the guys responsible for the creation of the Hindenberg. As such, I had to take the full blast and now my colon is torched beyond recognition. I'm so very glad I was able to protect my good buddy, though. It was all worth it. Jacob's stock plummeted 400 points from last week thanks to that utterance and he's now at a +1600. By the looks of the Maps right now, it looks like that crap he spewed last week carried over to this week. Please, if we can get rid of him this week... I promise I'll give the rabid dog a break next week and won't harp on her performance no matter HOW bad she does. Deal? He rated a 2-4/ GREEN/ 2nd (excuse me while I have a WTF moment), yet he only got a -2 on the Maps (1 win/ 3 losses). Again, look back at Pia. With any luck last week's steaming hot turd came back to haunt him for this week. I should, considering Jimmy reminded us all about it in this week's package. Actually, Jimmy chastised Jacob regarding it, it's the producers that chose to remind us. See at least SOMEONE'S doing their job there!

James (Heavy Metal by Sammy Hager): Heavy metal. On Idol. Freakin A!!! Best yet? He told Jimmy where to stick opinion when it was suggested he not do this song. Buddy, your stock just went way the hell up in my book. Do I think this will translate to the mainstream, common Idol audience, not necessarily. However, it was a HELL of alot more memorable (and not just because he was in the pimp spot) than Casey's showing. We got a huge blast of SUTA with James, too, but by now I'm so flippin numb and overly crisped back there that I didn't even notice the extra scorching. I don't expect him to go home this week. Then again, Pia had 4 states last week and rated high on the Chart, yet still got sent packing. James is UP slightly to a +350. He listed at a 2-8/ B3/ 4th and had a 6 state win.

At this point, I'm all for just cutting to the finale with James and Scotty. Metal against Country.

In the margin of my notes I have written Paul, Jacob and Stefano. It's high time that the B3 was inhabited by nothing but sausages. Actually, if you're anyone other than James or Scotty, your pooch is probably screwed this week.

Paul: Sang first and was the usual wreck. (goose egg!)

Lauren: Isn't memorable after Scotty and James.

Stefano: Not to say he wasn't memorable, but I totally didn't add this line until after I proofed the entire entry TWICE. The only reason I noticed is because I was only counting up 7 names and couldn't for the life of me remember who I forgot. Thank goodness I'm geek enough to take notes. (another goose egg)

Casey: Again, not as memorable. (only 1 state, pretty low for this stage of the game. Definitely NOT time to pull a performance like this one..)

Haley: I'm going to plead a 5th because that's the only way I'll find her enjoyable. No, wait, I make a mean drunk. Maybe it's a good thing I generally watch this sober. (even 4 states didn't save Pia!)

Jacob: There's no amount of alcohol at this point for this one. (-3!!!pleasepleasepleaseplease??!!)

Like I said. If you're not Scotty or James, you may as well pack now.

Actually, James may wanna pack too, just to be sure. The Chart numbers are kinda iffy and I really cannot be sure that 6 states is a guaranteed safe at this point. Normally, I would say for certain but last week was plain weird numbers-wise. He did have the benefit of the pimp spot this week, but even that's not a guarantee this season. Basically, if you aint a guy, aint tall, don't sing country and don't resemble a really cute Alfred E. Newman, then you may be screwed this week.

Chicagolady's choices for B3: Paul, Stefano and Jacob

She was right last week. I'd like to see if she can make it 2 weeks in a row.

*suddenly has a desire to listen to Marching to Mars before heading to bed*

Chart and Maps added 4/14/11 @ 3:34pm

PS: I really despise Blogger forcing me to use this new editor just so my entries get posted correctly......SRSLY.

Here Comes the SUTA

Here comes the SUTA (doo doo doo doo)

Here comes the SUTA

and I say

it's alright...

Oh hell no it aint. Whatchoo smokin' boys? At least it's better than Good day SUTAshine.... I'd have to put a hurt on someone for that.

This week's "theme" was The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. Hundreds and hundreds of artists to choose from. Really something for EVERYONE in that list so there was no real excuse to have an off week or not be memorable, right? Right?

I gather that the PTB (Powers That Be) felt Mr.Jimmy wasn't doing an adequate enough job with the kiddos because this week we had Will.I.Am sitting in as well. Srsly. You mean with all those inductees you couldn't find ONE that would represent the theme? Really? I guess we'll have a hip hop theme in a coming week with Bjork sitting in, am I right?

So help me... if that happens I'm so going to quit.

On the plus side, the show was only 90 minutes. Yay.

We had 3 on the States Lost Map this week.

Hey Chicago! You notice we stayed sober tonight? That sucked. I guess they forgot that they still have a couple kids on the show. Tell ya what. If the group song is Ring of Fire (and you know why I picked that one..) on the results show, I'll take a double shot... one for each of us. I also propose a new game for that other problem you mentioned. I expect that one or both of us will be under the desk by the time that one gets halfway through a song!

Jacob (Man in the Mirror by Michael Jackson): The only one I like less than this one is Haley and as of this week, if I HAD to vote for one of the two I'd be voting her through. Ok, I'll give him credit for dialing it back a little bit and it really was a nice song choice for him. However, if anyone was truly listening to his introduction package, they got a real earful. Go ahead and listen to it again and read between the lines. Basically, if he hits the B3 he feels it's not because of how he performed the song it will be because we can't face ourselves. Um. Excuse me? Darlin? I may not like what's there, but I can look in the mirror just fine. I also know how to take blame for when things go wrong and I know it's my fault (unlike some gov't officials we know). Can you say the same for yourself? If you go this week, you're right, it won't be for the performance because it was ok. It'll be because you took it upon yourself to preach to us, and we don't like that. That and you went first on a 90 minute show. We won't go into the fact that your performance didn't even measure up to this young man and since every show is supposed to be better than the last, you should have been able to at least accomplish that. I guess the judges didn't really catch it, or maybe they thought nothing of it, because surely someone should have called him on that blossoming ego he has going. His odds held for a 5th week running at +1200. I'm beginning to think he's already peaked and if anyone else caught that (and I know at least one other writer did and she has a MUCH larger circulation than I do... actually, I'm seeing another one who caught it too) ... well not many will have voted for him. Even with our collective colons getting the crispy critter treatment, Jacob got a big HUGE goose-egg in the Maps. I guess more than 3 or 4 of us caught that veiled snide remark he made. That's the thing about the internet, dude, once it gets out there... it never truly goes away. Although there are a couple others that I'd much rather see go home first, I would be quite satisfied to see him in the B3 just to teach the lil monster to get his ego in check. On the Chart he got a 4-9/B3/8th rating. I hope you thought to pack.

Haley (Piece of My Heart by Janis Joplin): I hated this. Alot. I don't care what the judges think. The only thing I can think of when I listen to her is... if I wanted to hear a growling , snarling, mangy, rabid dog... I'd go visit the neighbor 3 doors down. The only one I'm really not liking more than you is the show opener. Her odds leapt up to a +3300 this last week. The Chart rating has her at a 3-9/B3/5th ranking. With a 2 state win and one loss, she's at a 1 on the Maps this week and in danger.

Casey (Have You Ever Seen the Rain by CCR): He made a good choice to change the song selection. This definitely worked in his favor. Could you imagine a Sting song done as a rhumba? Yeah, me neither. He kept his growl fairly well restrained, which I suspect is a very hard thing for him to do because it always looks like he's going to bust loose on us. I wonder if he can teach Haley to do it. She might be bearable if she did. His odds slipped to a +1200. Not the direction we want to be seeing those odds going in, to be honest. I'm wondering if he, too, peaked too early and we're watching that long and painful spiral the early favorites tend to do before they crash and burn. He only rated a 1 on the Maps and the Chart listed him with a 3-9/B3/4th placing. I hate to say it, but even with a nice performance, there is a chance we may see him in the bottom again which you know has GOT to be frustrating. To go from a favorite to having to be saved to scraping the bottom more often than not.

Lauren (Natural Woman by Aretha Franklin): Oh Lauren, Lauren, Lauren. What are we going to do with you? This was a nice performance, but only that, just nice. We are in season 10 of this show and every year they tout the current year's cast is "The Best Group Evar!!!" It should stand to reason that should be better than at least the FIRST winner, yes? I mean, it's been a decade, for goodness sakes. No? Ok, how about at least better than the AUDITION performance of a runner-up? Hm. Has she peaked too early? Surely she's got more in there, right? Her odds are saying not as she's held at +500 for 5 weeks running, same as the egotistical lout who sang first this week. She had a 3 state win with a 1 state loss giving her a 2 on the Maps and a 4-9/B3/6th on the Charts. Is America already saying, "Lauren who?"

James (While My Guitar Gently Weeps by George Harrison): Dammit. I did say that I really wanted to not like this one, correct? I have said that this is not what I'm really looking for in a winner this season, yes? I'm sure I have. Yet another week in a row and I really liked his performance. Damn. There goes another $1.29 out my account. James got alot of praise without the gushing. Ok, who ordered the SUTA-block? Of all that performed up to this point, HE was the one most worthy of the gushing. His odds have been steadily climbing since day one and I fully expect that in the next 2 weeks or maybe a bit over, he'll end up in the negative (great for him, not so good for bettors). This week he's at a +375. His rating on the Chart is a 1-3/GREEN/2 and he had a 5 state win on the Maps. No way in hell he's going home this week. I will not be surprised if he goes to at least the Top 4.

Scotty (That's Alright Mama by Elvis): I'd never heard of this one until this week, then again I'm not really much into Elvis's music. However, it didn't much matter. This was such a fun performance to watch. Ok ok ok. I, umm, watchitseveraltimesover hit repeat repeatedly and squealed like a fangirly watched it a couple more time than necessary and laughed every single time (the facial expressions, the movement, it was all just so funny). He so does not need this show, truly. I do have to ask, when exactly did Idol change their views on the fans rushing the stage like that? Yeah, Chicago, I'm pretty sure that was scripted in. Although I'm not certain the judges were in on it. It's either that or Idol has lightened up their views on it since the first season. Why? Go back to one of those other links I posted for Lauren. You can clearly hear someone in charge hollering for security when the ONE fan hit the stage. They certainly should have this time when SIX rushed up there. His odds held at a +240 for the 3rd week in a row and he ranked on the Chart with a 1-2/GREEN/1 with a 12 state win on the Maps. No way in hell is he going home this week. Middle of the pack and to pull those numbers?? I can't wait to see what numbers he draws when he gets the pimp spot.

Hey, when's Lauren singing? What? She has already? Really? Are you sure?

Pia (River Deep Mountain High by Tina Turner): Ok. Yes. She can sing. We all know she can. She has an undeniably wonderful voice. BUT. There is no connection there to the fans. It's all well and good to come down on the lower end of the stage between the judges and the audience, but that's not connecting with them. This was much like strapping a boom-box to a super model's back and telling her to strut it down the catwalk. There's not much connection there either. Better yet, save the money, strap the radio to a mannequin's back and wheel it around for a bit. At least it would be a bit warmer to those who are watching. There's no sense making that trip if you're not going to really interact with the fans on your way through. Until you can take that brick wall down and make that connection, you're not going to be anything more than a glorified back-up singer with a great voice. She had a 4 state win on the Maps with a 2-5/GREEN/3 rating on the Chart. Her odds are creeping up ever so slowly and she's at a +320 this week. She's going to be giving Scotty a run for his money in short order, but if she's not careful James will surpass her. Yet another that there is no way in hell this one's going home.

Stefano (When A Man Loves a Woman by Percy Sledge): Ok. I tolerate him a bit better than our first two performers this week, but just barely. What can I say, I don't like SUTAtastic Archy Gaspy Lipuletta 2.0 at all. I'd love to show you an example of what I'm talking about, however it looks like the person who owned the video has shut her Youtube account down. A real shame. Seriously, dude. Enough already. His odds fell this week to a +3000. The Maps were generous with a 3 state win but the Chart put him at 4-9/B3/7th. I'm kind of on the fence about him this week. Thankfully he doesn't stay memorable long.

Paul (Folsom Prison Blues by Johnny Cash): Ok. Now this is the kind of music he needs to be doing. This was the most enjoyable performance from him I've ever seen. The only notes I took on this one is a one word reaction that I can't print in here. Well, I could if I made it private. *chuckles* His odds PLUMMETED from last week's poor showing. The Chart has him at 4-9/B3/LAST and the Maps gave him less than love. He is the only one who lost a state and didn't have any on the winner Map to balance it out. With a -1, I will not be surprised if he's shipped off this week. You never know, though. Maybe, just maybe , VFTW and the pimp spot will do their magic. However, I do have to point out that many times over the seasons, people that had bloody awful weeks one week and a great week the next.... went home on the great week. Just sayin'.

So who goes home?

Best bet is

Paul: Even with the pimp position and being the poster child at VFTW, he pulled in some really abysmal figures this week.

tied with him

Haley: Her odds are as low as his (although she's on her way up and not crashing, like Paul), she sang second and sounds like a pack of wolves at a moose meat feast.

Other people who deserve the Walk of Shame:

Jacob: A first singing position and that snide comment certainly didn't help. I wonder if the judges DID catch it and SUTAed him just to try and save the last AAD in the competition. You just know people will scream FIXED if he goes, but he's really outlasted his welcome.

Casey: A third sing position might be better than first or second, but on a 90 minute show and you're struggling to keep going? His stock's falling.

Lauren: Wait a minute, did she sing? With odds stagnating and performances being just so-so, it's really time to step it up and do something AMAZING. Otherwise the next time her fans will see her is during the press circuit and then the tour.

Also to watch:

Stefano: This is no time to be vanilla, dude, and stop all that lip smacking. You might want to work on stage presence too. I've seen better cheese in a can of Cheez-Whiz.

Pia: I don't really believe this is her week, however, we cannot deny that lack of connection. She, too, needs to work on stage presence to become a real contender.

Basically, if you're not James or Scotty, you might want to be packed and ready.