So far BetUS has the odds set at -140 for the guys and +100 for the girls. They seem to think that we're going to have yet another CM winner. I really hope not, but it looks like it may not be the AAM year this time around (just the one and I really can't see him winning this unless something changes). It could possibly be a girl's year to win because we do have one, possibly two that can give these guys a run for their money.
Lauren (Any Man of Mine by Shania Twain) : Ok. I really have to feel sorry for this gal. Hopefully Rickey and his Vote for the First initiative can save her because she really stepped in it big here. Why? Well the first spot singing position was bad enough but then she had to choose one of the Shania songs that seems to have a curse on it. To sing that song and sing first on a night that has 2 hours of music, you really need to slam it out of the park. This, unfortunately, she failed to do. Don't believe me there's a curse on this song? Go talk to Mandisa, who was an early favorite and Siobhan, who although wasn't a favorite of many still had an undeniably unbelieveable set of pipes on her. Both got eliminated on the nights they sang this song. However, both had more sass in their little pinkies than Lauren had this week. I'm with Randy, this was merely good and nothing really special. Steven was right too, it needed more kick-assedness. She may not have wanted to do a big ballad but I think that it may have served her better this week (try Ka-ching, not overly ballady but would allow the voice to soar). Unfortunately, that performance was unmemorable once the rest had sung. Last week she was at a +1044 and by Wednesday her odds had sky-rocketed to a +400. She's the present favorite on the OSGA site, although I wouldn't be surprised to see that change by later today. She rated a 2-13/B3/7th on the Chart and only one state win.
Casey (With a Little Help from My Friends by Joe Cocker): OMG. SQUWEEEEEEEEEEEE!!! Now THIS is how to start the damned night. Lauren not only got schooled, but he even provided friggin extra credit work too! This was the absolutely the most PERFECT song for him. I'm beginning to doubt that he really needs this show. Just cut him loose now and give him a contract already, please?? Him and one or two others here. Srsly, they don't need to be here. . This was a big improvement over last week. Last week was entertaining at best. This performance, however, bears repeated listenings. The odds went up from last week's +750 to a +500. Not the top of the pack yet, but getting there. He Charted with a 5-13/B3/12th BUT garnered a 3 state win. We saw what the Chart did last week so we'll need to keep this in mind as we decide how he'll do. I can say that of the 13, he had the second (albiet a distant second) highest number of states.
Ashthon (When You Tell Me That You Love Me by Diana Ross): Singing position is going to be a problem for her, especially since it took a wild-card to get her this far. She sounded off tonight on the tv, but listening back on Rickey's site (and through a pair of earbuds), it's not that bad. Definitely was a too safe choice for her. This song really didn't serve her well at all. If you're gonna pull some Ms. Ross out of your 'fro, at least grab one that you can get your teeth into... like maybe Ain't No Mountain High Enough (choose a bit faster tempo to it though). That would have been showstopping. Last week's odds were at +2760 and fell by this week to a +3000. Vegas obviously aint feeling it this year for an AAF winner either. Vocally I think she's truly the only female in this year's competition that can give Pia a run for her money, if she'd just step out and let that inner diva free. She's got it, she just needs to let go. She rated 5-13/B3/11th on the Chart and only got a 1 state win. I won't be surprised if she's in danger of leaving.
Paul (Come Pick Me Up by Ryan Adams): I was really wondering how they were going to let Paul do this song because of the language in the refrain. Meh. Wasn't really feeling this performance. I really think it's that voice of his. It just doesn't work for me and I find I'm getting more and more annoyed with it. As of this week, he's now the VFTW poster child (he won by a coin toss, of all things). Last week's odds were at +1200 and have risen to a +700. I doubt, after this, they'll stay there. He Charted a 5-13/B3/13th and had a 2 state win. It's possible that VFTW got the job done last night. This isn't necessarily going to keep him safe though because they were having trouble deciding between him and Naima, so they could easily flip the other way by next week.
Pia (All By Myself by Celine Dion): Have I said yet, this year, how much I despise Celine Dion's music? Not just the originals, the covers she did too. Even this beautiful Eric Carmen song. That said, this was a really good performance and she did manage to hit the glory note in tune. I am very grateful that she didn't do any of the other oversung Titanical monstrosities that Ms Dion is known for. Yeah, and that one too. Last week's odds were at a +1169 and exploded to a +550 by Sunday and a +400 by Wednesday. If the girls have a chance this year, she's the best bet to get them to the finals. She rated a 2-9/GREEN/4th on the Chart and had a one state win on the Map.
James (Maybe I'm Amazed by Paul McCartney): *mini squwees* I so have not wanted to like this guy. I mean I did dub him Adam 2.0 weeks ago (although I wasn't writing at the time) and that's so not the type of artist I'm looking for this year because I'm wanting something different for a change. Then I saw that he was singing this song and I listened to the original. At which point I had to admit that it was the absolute perfect song for him *IF* he could rein in that rocker's wail a bit. Color me amazed that he kept in check until the appropriate point in the song, let it stretch a bit and then reined it in again. Absolutely wonderful. Easily, hands down, tied for best of the night. His odds, like Pia's, have done and explosive improvement going from a +1409 last week to a +800 by Sunday and a +400 by Wednesday. He rated 2-9/GREEN/2nd on the Chart and won 2 states. This one's going to be a hard one to place because of last week's fiasco in the Chart. I do believe he should be safe this week.
Haley (Blue by LeAnn Rimes): Ew. If there's a song I despise more than a Celine Dion song (or most of Mariah's), it's this one. All I can give her is that she was accurate with her notes. However, she did NOTHING new to that song. Not a single bit. The only reasons why this one will be more memorable than Lauren's country pick will be because of singing position and that horrid moodeling (yodel-moo?) she did. I'm not fond of it to begin with and when it's poorly done, it's even worse. Her odds went from a +4152 up to a +2500 on Wednesday. I doubt they'll stay there for long. After this, I'm expecting them to slide. Can we just vote her off now, please? She Charted at 5-13/B3/10th and had absolutely nothing in the win/loss Maps.
Jacob (I Believe I Can Fly by R Kelly): Why do I always feel like I should be in church when this boy sings? Srsly, boyfriend needs to team up with a televangelist and just go on tour with them. This should have been a beautiful number, much better than Aaron Kelly gave us last year. However, Jacob decided this was the vocal olympics and performed the balance beam, floor exercise and synchronized swimming all at the same time in one vocal performance. Just because you can add flavor, does NOT mean you need to be heavy handed with it. Flavor's just that, a taste... a touch.. just that little something that makes things better. Too much and you spoil the product. This type of performance is great for stage work, but it's not exactly radio friendly. Ok, maybe one song, but not every single one. He placed 2-9/GREEN/3rd on the Chart but had no wins or losses on the Maps. According by the Chart he's safe, the Maps say he's in danger.
Thia (Smile by Charlie Chaplin): ZZzzzzz. *snork* huh? Ok, I can appreciate that she tried to change up a beautiful, yet dreadfully dull song. I actually preferred the jazzy arrangement in the middle. It's a shame they didn't just stick to one style the whole way through. I think it would have worked better. You want to know how to do it right? Check out Gina Glocksen's version of it (I'd also point out Paige Miles's performance but it really is more of an example of what not to do). I won't be surprised if she's fodder this week though. Last week's odds had her at +3503 and she shot to +600 with last week's performance. I don't see the odds staying that high come tonight, though. She Charted at 2-13/B3/9th and garnered a 2 state win on the Maps. She may or may not be safe.
Stefano (Lately by Stevie Wonder): Good golly was this ever nasally. It was horrid to listen to the first time and now listening back, I'm equally appalled. Why in heaven's name did they allow this one through on the wild card? Jovanny would have been a much better choice, I'm pretty sure at this point. Anyhow, this is a rather dull song and although the arrangement got spruced up some (it was referred to as a dance remix), it really wasn't much appealing at all. Dance remixes don't usually get alot of air play on the usual stations so it doesn't really make a whole lot of sense to do one unless you're an already established artist. Last week's odds had him at +1485 and he plummeted by Wednesday to +2000. I won't be surprised if he sinks farther by next week. He Charted at 2-13/B3/8th and had a one state win.
Karen (I Could Fall in Love by Selena): The performance was rather dull and the lower notes just bottomed out on her. If that wasn't bad enough, she wasn't really hitting those upper notes all that well either. Just sayin'. She also had the misfortune of singing just before two contestants that will actually be remembered. Does she even remember that she's in a competition? Last week her odds were at +1795 and they slightly rose by Wednesday to a +1500. She Charted with a 2-13/B3/6th and had a 2 state win. My guess is that she was just forgettable enough that the voters forgot how bad she was . Either that or there were others that the voters deemed a whole lot worse.
Scotty (The River by Garth Brooks) :SQUWEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!! Ok. Don't know what to say but I love Love LOVE this good ol boy's voice. I could listen to it all day long. Do his songs sound a bit alike? Yeah. However, this isn't always a bad thing. Just a little two-step out of the box will fix that right up. He's gonna go far, show or not. Next week, depending on the theme, I'd like to suggest some Jason Michael Carroll. In fact, the song that link goes to would be nice. Looks like my panties are gonna get a work out this year. Oh wait... he's only 16? *takes a shot* Damn. His odds went from a +872 last week to a +500 by this Wednesday. The Chart has him in first with a 14 state win. Unless both the Chart AND the Maps are wrong, this boy aint going home this week either. YAY!
Naima (Umbrella by Rihanna): Ok. This was definitely unique. I generally don't like much of RiRi's music to begin with, although there are a few that I really enjoy. This would not be one of them. She was a bit pitchy and the endings of some of her words were roughly cut off, however most of that can be attributed to the fact that she was actually performing her ass off (literally). Even walking can throw a singer off if they're not trained, and she was moving around while singing in some parts. I really kinda dug that reggae bit in the middle too, pretty cool there. I'm looking forward to hearing the ITunes version of this one, to see how much farther she took the reggae section, if she did at all. One of the other blogs that I read pointed out that a performance such as this is exactly the type of stuff Top 40 artists like Katy, Fergie and Rihanna are putting out so this actually makes Naima very commercially viable and she'll be able to compete in the market better than some of the others we have this season. The question is, is this the type of artist America wants going forward in the music industry? Last week's odds had her at +1938 and she dropped to a +2000. She rated a 2-13/B3/5th and was the only one this week to lose a state. One win and one loss gives her a goose egg this week. Even in the pimp spot, she was unable to outshine the country boy. Not really a good sign. Also working against her? The new number to dial for that spot. "Because 13 is an unlucky number" was the official excuse used. However, if I recall from last year, the 13 is actually to a porn line.
So who goes home and who stays?
In the most danger this week:
Jacob: Although the Charts have him in third and declared safe, we saw what happened last week. At least one in the green was sent packing. The question is, does America wants someone who over-sings every song (R Kelly gone gospel???)? I tend to doubt they do.
Naima: Even the pimp spot couldn't keep the country boy from outshining her. Although commercially viable, is she just too different (looks, voice, style) for the average American Idol fan? That and the phone number to vote for her couldn't have helped matters either.
Haley: Please... can we get rid of her now?? The only way she's going to be memorable is if she is in the pimp spot and even then, I'm thinking the first few singers will still be memorable.
Others for consideration for the B3:
Pia: Although she performed well, and she's listed as safe, I still feel a general disconnect between her and the audience. This happened with LaToya London too. Exquisite voice, but came across as cold to the average fan.
Lauren: A first singing position and a not so great performance on a 2 hour show night, not a good thing.
Stefano: Piss poor performance. It'd be ironic if the judges rammed him down our throats and then America voted him off anyhow. Tellin ya, they should have chosen Jovanny.
Ashthon: The first 3 singing positions are really deadly, especially on a 2 hour show night. She also needs to be allowing that diva that's in there to run free. It's the only way she's going to get any farther. Considering her and Jacob are the only AAs (that I can tell, you never truly know these days) in the competition, I don't really think that either will go home this week. However, we've seen odder years.
Actually, if you're not Scotty, and possibly Casey or James or both, it's very possible you could be in the bottom 3 and voted off.
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