Seven kids came in this week with the theme of songs that inspire. Yes, we're back to the Idol Gives Back week again. I'm so glad we don't pay for this because I would have been demanding 6/7 of my money back. Ok, being nice maybe 4.5/7 of a refund (half a point to the one I've kinda liked all along and the other whole point begrudgingly to one I've been harping on all season).
As we've seen, the Maps haven't exactly been the most accurate this year and neither have the odds NOR the Chart. It's pretty much been all over the place. The DI Chart had it absolutely right last week though, both contestants that left were at the very bottom. We had 3 listed in green this week, with 2 having a B3 mark next to their names as well.
Casey (Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow by Fleetwood Mac): This was another consistent, not bad but not great performance from Casey and I'm pretty much over him at this point. His performance was like those "professional" karaoke peeps you find in the bars. They're paid to be there to sing to the patrons while they slam back Heinies (or Millers or Buds or whatev, Jagermeister anyone??). The quality is good if you're not drinking and increases in perfection the more you drink (and if they strip, even better). They're not so bad that you walk out the minute they start singing but you're certainly grateful you didn't pay a cover charge. To paraphrase Randy, it's the same ol same ol with Casey. The odds on the betting sites have him almost neck and neck with Lee headed for the second spot in the finale but I won't be surprised if that changes come this afternoon when I get up to check. This week he's hit the bottom (and by bottom I mean dead last) of the chart with a 4-7 rating. He won one and lost one on the Maps for a huge goose egg this week, down 9 whole states from last week. No surprise though, because he was in the pimp spot last week. However, as Crystal's proved, you don't always need that spot to garner alot of votes. You just have to sing WELL. His odds slipped this week. All things concerned, I feel safe enough to call him in danger this week. If the Chart is right, like it was last week, we may see Casey riding off in the sunset later. Casey's odds have fallen even farther since the program this week. I'm seeing rumors that next week is country. A Casey ouster now, the week before a theme that would really help him, would just play into my theory that we could easily predict who was going home when just by looking at what weeks the themes fall on.
Lee (The Boxer by Simon and Garfunkel): Seriously, really? OK, honestly the song is good for his voice but I'm not so certain I would have chosen this song for this week. Yeah, I can see why it would be appropriate, but still. Not so certain I'm 100% loving his treatment of the song either. Maybe that's it? Or maybe it's the fact he needs to complete his phrases better? I will give him credit for at least attempting to change it up somewhat, unlike Casey who sang his pretty much (although not completely) straight. His odds have been playing yo-yo. They went up a little after last week's performance but then dropped again by the afternoon of show day. He's listed as 2-5 green B3 and won 3 states in the Maps. The 3 state win breaks him even compared to last week. Do do not foresee him making a trip to the B3 this week. Then again, I didn't call it when Mike (he had 3 states when he hit B3) or Katie (she had a 4 state win and ended up sent HOME) went to the B3 on their respective weeks either. Basically, I suck at this this year. Lee's odds went up after his performance this week. Not by a whole lot, but a substantial amount.
Tim (Better Days by the Goo Goo Dolls): He was off. This was plain awful. We're back to the same we were getting before which makes me think the last week or two were just flukes. Like Ellen said, this was like the soup of the day, sometimes we like it and sometimes not. I prefer my soups hot or at least lukewarm. I don't like Gazpacho or any other cold soups (like Vichyssoise). This wasn't even THAT good. This was more like a super salty bouillon that's been left to chill until the fat rises to the top. You know, the kind you get when you don't add the full cup of liquid per cube but only use a tablespoon worth of water and then don't even dissolve it properly. Yeah, it was truly that bad. Definitely not better days here, buddy. His odds are dropping again and I anticipate they'll drop farther by later this afternoon. He won 3 states and lost one for a 2 state win which is up 2 states from last week. Hm. That stinking nefarious state must have figured out how to get the world to legally vote for our show. This is AMERICAN Idol, not World Idol, folks. Please don't mess with an already fkd up show. His odds actually went up somewhat. After a performance like that, I would have predicted they'd fall like the Hindenburg.
Aaron (I Believe I Can Fly by R.Kelly): OK, at least he added the proper amount of water to the bouillon and it's not so salty. It wasn't that much less painful though. A better performance of this song was done by Katherine. Odds falling, with 4 wins and 2 losses for a 2 state win. He broke even with last week. This was NOT a good choice for him. Kara was right, it was like watching a plane try to take off alright, over a runway filled with speed bumps and potholes. Then, when it finally started to take off, it dragged its tail down the strip and nicked the tower on its way up. He's more than likely in trouble this week. The only thing that might just save him is that forgettable performance from the first singer of the night. Odds fell. Only person lower these days is the Teflon Wonderboy.
Siobhan (When You Believe by Whitney Houston and Mariah Carey): I officially hate her now because she made me actually LIKE her performance this week. Yes, she was a tad nasally and yes, she really needs to learn to back off the mic when she takes the deep breaths necessary for those notes (Gaspuleta had this problem during his year for his version of the song too, her performance is the better of the two). However, she was in near perfect control of her voice this week. This was an extremely hard song to pull off (considering the 2 divas that sang it originally). Best yet, was that beautiful soprano note that wasn't screamed. It was actually sung and sustained properly. No, she really is not commercially viable and no this is definitely not a radio type song. However, she'd do exceedingly well on Broadway and I still say she needs to get some opera training... go and become her generation's Sarah Brightman or Beverly Sills. The judges were all wrong on her this week and damn them for making me have to take her side. Now if they would stop encouraging her to talk afterward or better yet, teach her how to formulate her answers faster. Her odds have dropped slightly this week, I really hope they see an increase after this performance. She won 7 states this week for an increase of 5 states over last week and she wasn't even in the pimp spot this week. She's rated a 2-6/ B3 green. Although the Chart still lists her with the B3 marker, I feel pretty good about calling her safe this week. Very well done. WTF?? Her odds FELL?? After what was arguably one of her finer performances?? Ok, ok, so maybe only a stage/choir geek whould appreciate that. It might simply be that they encourage her to monologue after every performance. I'm telling you, no matter how much practice she needs, they really need to nip that in the bud. and fast.
Michael (Hero by Chad Kroger of Nickelback and Josey Scott of Saliva): Personally, I would have rather heard Lee perform this song and Michael tackle The Boxer. However, that would have been extremely predictable on Lee's side so maybe it's a good thing he didn't. This wasn't great, but it was better than a few others this week. A better performance of this , albeit it wasn't for competition, was done (God help me for saying this) by the Davids (although we all know whose part of the performance I liked better). At least with Mike's singing position, it'll be better remembered than some of the others this week, maybe. Odds are dropping, only a one state win this week (down 3 states from last week) and a 2-7 rating mean that he might actually be in trouble this week, again. Another one that crashed. I'm kinda over him too.
Crystal (People Get Ready by The Impressions): Hands down, best.performance.of.the.night. And she did it sans guitar. Her opening notes very reminiscent of Bo's Moment in Season 4 all the way through the accompaniment that got added 1/4 the way in and down to the last broken down notes on the end, absolute perfection. Only thing she needs to work on is what to do with her hands when she's not strumming a guitar. She definitely schooled them all tonight and slammed that gauntlet down. I cannot WAIT to get the ITunes studio version of this one. Nice playful joking between Ryan and her considering the crap that's been circulating the media concerning them. Her odds are the only ones that have kept rising from day one. To date, you'd need to put nearly $200 down just to break even on this one. As of tomorrow's posting, I'd guarantee you'll be needing to drop more than that. Contrary to the news reports, she's in it to win it. This week she won 16 states putting her up 8 states over last week. Granted many are more than likely from the pimp spot, but I'd venture a guess that if she knocks it out of the park next week like this, there won't be too much of a drop in the number of states. She is one of the 3 in green on the Chart but the only one with a solid #1 in her bubble. There is no way in hell she's going anywhere this week. I was right. As of this posting, you need to drop $215 on her just to break even.
So who's in most danger this week?
Considering every betting site I looked at this week is still calling it a girl's year to win, even though there are only two left, and the fact that the girls really brought it in a big way this week, I feel pretty safe in saying that all 3 in the B3 are going to be guys.
So who is it? Any of the following 4 could easily be sent home:
Casey: Same ol same ol barroom karaoke performances that lack the shine of being a true star. He doesn't even have enough star power to be worth a cover charge at a Roadhouse and IF they hired him for the night, they wouldn't bother putting up the chicken-wire fence to protect him from the beer bottles when they get thrown at the band. The betting sites have him in an almost dead heat with Lee for the second spot in the finale, but after this performance I wouldn't be surprised if they're rethinking this. No states won, and a first position sing did NOT do him any favors this week. If sent home, many will say this is a shocker. However, if you really look back at his performances (better yet, just listen to them) you'd see there hasn't been much improvement and the only way he's skated by is on looks and because there were a few others worse than him. Now that many of them are gone, his days are numbered. Dial Idol's Chart actually had it right last week and both at the very bottom were sent packing. Casey's the last listed this week. There are ones with worse odds, however we saw in the week that we lost Didi that just because your odds are in the low thousands, it's not necessarily going to save you. Vegas lost faith and that aint good.
Tim: He's a bottom dweller that needs to be thanking God for that nasty ol site. He's had a couple good-ish weeks and now reverted back to his previous putrid performances. Buddy's over stayed his welcome by a month now and like a pile of dirty laundry that's sat around for a couple weeks fermenting, it's beginning to stink a bit. OK, Alot (even college boys would be wanting to throw this one in the washer). I don't care if the Maps show improvement, boyfriend's gotta go. It'd be a shame if we lost him just when we have an uptick on the odds (he just managed to get out of the 5 digits last week... but still $100 gets ya $8059 if he wins), but he needed to be gone long ago.
Aaron: Simon called this one right folks, it took guts and the boy did try, but this performance was a stinker and was only out stunk by Tim's. The song was much much too big for him to handle at this point of his life, I don't care if he's been singing it since he was 5. If he goes, it won't be because the performance was bad, it'll be because he's STILL splitting votes with Tim and Casey (the cute teen vote with Tim, country vote with Casey) and in a Tim/Aaron or Casey/Aaron showdown he loses on both accounts. This is too many bad weeks in a row for him. Only thing that will save him is if Tim or Casey get the boot.
Michael: The feel good vibe from the save is only going to last so long and it already looks like it's wearing off. He lost 3 states from last week and his odds are still falling. Looks like America doesn't want another AAM winner. Maybe he reminds them too much of Ruben? Many will call this one a shocker if he goes, but it isn't. He's already hit B3 once (well twice but it was acknowledged he didn't have that few votes for a B3, it was just drama) and his performances are lukewarm at best. Vegas is seeing he's not all we'd hope he'd be. Looks like hubby is wrong this year as he picked Mike for the win.
Just for kicks and giggles, I'm gonna toss one more in there. Not that I truly believe he belongs there. However, seeing that even 3+ in the states won't save you this year, I still have to consider the possibility that it'll happen even if he has a green bubble next to his name.
Lee: Why? He stagnated from last week in that he had no gains in the numbers on the Maps (3 both weeks). He also sang second and that's the second worst place to be in. His odds are still rising so it would be a HELL of a shocker (considering many see him as a dark horse) to have him booted. With his odds still going up, I really don't believe he's even an option this week. This will be an awful shock if he's sent home at this point.
So who goes? Any of those first 4 are past their freshness dates for this show.
Who should go? Tim
Who may go home in his place? Either Casey or Aaron. Mike's also possible but with country week coming up, Casey or Aaron (more the former than the latter as Casey's more country than Aaron is) would be the obvious choice if my theory holds true.
Shocker to go? Either Lee or Siobhan (only because they got annoyed with her finally. States say she stays, Vegas says potential to go)
Better yet, send all but Lee, Siobhan and Crystal home and hop straight to the Top 3. It'll shorten the season a bit and give Siobhan plenty of time to formulate how to tell the judges off before the May finale.
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